When John Rustad looks back on 2024, he may well see himself as the runner who caught the field from behind, only to lose the race at the ribbon.

The photo finish for the B.C. Conservative party leader came down to a judicial recount in Surrey-Guildford. Conservative Honveer Singh Randhawa led by little more than 100 votes late on Oct. 19 when Rustad spoke to supporters from a Vancouver stage. His candidates were leading in 45 ridings, with a handful of other still up for grabs.

"This election is not over," Rustad said, gripping the hand of his wife, Kim. "We have an opportunity still to form government in the province of British Columbia and bring common-sense change to British Columbia." 

But on Nov. 8, the drawn-out election was finally over. Elections B.C. certified New Democrat Garry Begg as a 22-vote-winner of Surrey-Guildford after a judicial recount.

The Conservatives held 44 seats on 43.28 per cent of the popular vote as the party elected the highest number of candidates in its history. Their third-straight governing mandate also chipped away at the theory that right-of-centre parties are the default choice in B.C. and revived the questions facing all runner-ups: did the B.C. Conservatives 'win' silver or 'lose' gold?

Should they feel happy about their performance or sad about their loss? Which emotion prevailed? 

"Both at the same time," Rustad said. "I mean, it was disappointing that we weren't able to get over the line. The message that I heard loud and clear everywhere I went was that we were giving them hope. People were desperate for change. But at the same time, I was thrilled and excited because of what we had been able to achieve."

When the legislature returns in 2025, the Conservatives will take their place as the largest opposition caucus ever elected in the history of B.C. Women make up 41 per cent of that caucus and visible minorities account for about 20 per cent.

"In many ways, we redefined what it is to be conservative, both here in B.C. and quite frankly, across the country," Rustad said. 

Rustad's boast is not without merit. His party made in-roads among groups of ethnic and working class voters previously sympathetic toward New Democrats. Provincial Conservatives also found support among younger voters concerned about affordability, especially the cost of housing.

The fear of losing those voting blocks helps to explain why New Democrats revised several key policy positions just before the election. When Eby announced B.C. would stop charging the consumer portion of the carbon tax if Ottawa were to drop the requirement, he specifically cited waning support for the tax among construction workers. Growing concerns about public safety across different groups also help to explain policy reversals on decriminalization and involuntary care. 

But in the end, Rustad and the provincial Conservatives could not do what other parties promoting a comparable message accomplished elsewhere: win power. So beyond the 22 votes in Surrey-Guildford, what was the missing element? 

"So there's no one factor," Rustad said before pointing to various areas. One was the continued presence of B.C. United until late summer.

"If we could have done a deal with B.C. United three months earlier, would it have given us an opportunity to do nomination meetings to deal with issues? Likely it would have quelled the independents. We lost three ridings because of independents."

Rustad also noted that significant resources only became available toward the end.

"We were basically building this plane while we're flying it," he said while acknowledging the party may have spread itself thin thematically.

"In hindsight, when I think about our campaign, probably could have been more effective if we had stayed more focused, as opposed to coming out with so many different things in our platform and trying to highlight them all," he said. 

The new leader of B.C.'s official opposition acknowledged that there were "certain groups of voters that we weren't able to connect with." Based on the available evidence, those included women and older voters. Rustad also lagged behind Eby in terms of popularity and perceived competence. Finally, various strategists have pointed to the effects of a dossier containing controversial statements made by Conservative candidates. Initially compiled by B.C. United, it provided the media and New Democrats with a steady stream of stories and lines of attack. 

Brent Chapman's comments about Muslims and Marina Sapozhnikov's comments about First Nations fed a larger narrative that Conservatives were not-ready-for-prime-time-radicals, out-of-step with the provincial mainstream on issues such as SOGI 123, climate change and vaccines.   

Rustad, naturally, sees it differently in accusing New Democrats and Eby of distorting the record.

"Every day of the campaign, they lied," Rustad said. "They lied about us, they lied about what what they were doing...I was surprised by that and quite frankly, I wasn't prepared to counter that. So David Eby may think that he survived the hordes...he should actually be embarrassed about how they did in this campaign." 

Leading Conservative voices see the party as a disruptive force that tapped into a reservoir of discontentment that now faces the task of channelling that energy into different directions. 

Recent criticism of Surrey-Cloverdale MLA Elenore Sturko by 13 colleagues had some suggesting that energy may turn the party against itself, but Rustad dismissed the suggestions.

"I have tried and I'm going to continue to try to do politics very different," he said. Rustad said his previous party — the former B.C. Liberals — as well as the B.C. NDP have tried to control the "narrative" and "don't allow their MLAs to go out and say anything that is different from their narrative." 

But he said this singular narrative is not appropriate for B.C. and won't be the practice of the B.C. Conservatives.

"We have a very diverse province — 93 different ridings, 93 different areas, 93 different issues. Of course, you are going to have differing views and I don't want to be whipping all of my MLAs to be saying the exact same thing." 

For Rustad, the dispute between Sturko and the 13 MLAs over controversial comments by former Vancouver Police Board member Comfort Sakoma-Fadugba is about free speech. 

"I am dead set against hate, I am dead set against racism, I will not accept those certainly within a party I am leading," he said. "But free speech means, if somebody says something that I might be opposed to and I might be diametrically opposed and even angered by what somebody says, if I'm not prepared to fight for their right to say, then I'm not protecting free speech. So there are going to be differences."

But for how long can a party sustain those differences, while maintaining the necessary discipline? 

Rustad said the "easy road" is to "control the narrative". 

"So I don't think anybody has tried the route we have done and may be for good reason," he said. "So we will find out. But it's just what I believe. It's what I think needs to happen. So the key in my mind is to be able to be respectful if we have differences."