A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada 鈥� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,鈥� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a 鈥渨orking majority鈥� on pretty much all policy decisions.
鈥淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didn鈥檛 control the flow of debate and information鈥� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.鈥�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election 鈥� scheduled for Sept. 20 鈥� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that won鈥檛 be enough for a majority 鈥� and the Liberals know it.
鈥淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?鈥� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. 鈥淗e鈥檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and he鈥檚 done so in very targeted ways.鈥�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals don鈥檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
鈥淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,鈥� he said.
In both the party鈥檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at Trudeau鈥檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a 鈥渃ertain credibility at the moment鈥� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who don鈥檛 want the Conservatives, but don鈥檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.鈥�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country 鈥� such as B.C. 鈥� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform 鈥� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day 鈥� and it includes initiatives that 鈥測ou haven鈥檛 heard from Conservatives鈥� before.
鈥淚t鈥檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because that鈥檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,鈥� Leader Erin O鈥橳oole states in the document. He also promises to 鈥渢ake climate change seriously,鈥� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
鈥淚 think that O鈥橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,鈥� he said. 鈥�(But) I do think that O鈥橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.鈥�
The Tories鈥� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, 鈥渃learly a party of the right鈥� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
鈥淎lthough O鈥橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesn鈥檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.鈥�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that O鈥橳oole 鈥� like prior leaders 鈥� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic 鈥� and in B.C. the raging wildfires 鈥� may decide it鈥檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 hard to see this as a campaign that鈥檚 going to inspire anyone,鈥� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
鈥淚f had to put money down, I鈥檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.鈥�
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Editor鈥檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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